Global warming, part 2
I was not even remotely considering continuing this depressing conversation. I would much rather talk about school and the kids. However, news this week reminded me that the third graders I’m teaching and those in the U.S. and around with world will suffer in a greatly changed world depending on how the “adults” in the developed world act over the next several years related to our emissions of greenhouse gases. It’s “do or die” time.
This week I read reports that our administration admits that if the world does nothing about greenhouse gas emissions the earth will certainly warm at least 4 degrees centigrade over per-industrial within 80 years.
Further, they say that if the only thing the world does is to keep Obama’s automobile emission reduction in place, a false proposition, then things don’t change much. They use that as an excuse to roll back the regulation so that a few large corporations and shareholders make some more short term profits by externalizing the huge costs to the environment onto our children and future generations.
It is frustrating that the administration is eager to walk back from doing even this small thing to help future generations. The administration, and those who support it, threaten the lives of my grandchildren and great-grandchildren – along with all other children on the planet.
This week the administration was also fighting the International Panel on Climate Change meeting in Incheon, South Korea which is working to decide how the countries might stay within 1.5 degrees of warming. The U.S. continues to pollute the planet and continues to fight countries trying to keep the planet habitable. Children around the world who are the age of my grandchildren will certainly die prematurely because of our actions.
The global warming problem we face would have been comparatively easy to fix in the 70’s and not that hard when Gore was running for president. However, each year we have made the problem worse. It is now much more expensive to mitigate and has become much more expensive for future generations to manage. That is not a reason to put off the problem or to stop trying. It will be harder next year and eventually impossible.
If the world stops trying, as our administration proposes, then it looks like our goose is cooked, in this case – the goose is ourselves and our planet.
I will experience more of the extremely negative impacts of climate change in my lifetime no matter what happens. If the U.S. continues as usual my grandchildren, lucky to be born in the U.S., might not live to see their grandchildren get married. At least they have a chance of seeing their grandchildren – many kids their age will not be so lucky.
It is hard to think about how fast things might get bad. As the frog in the slowly boiling pot things are already getting bad.
Climate scientists have been ridiculed and attacked since Svante Arrhenius first identified CO2 as a greenhouse gas in 1896. The climate is very complex and predictions are extremely difficult. Scientists tend to be ultraconservative in forecasting the future and they are still attacked.
There are some significant variables that cannot be accurately modeled. These are the tipping points and feedback loops, like melting methane hydrates and the reversal of the carbon cycle, that might kick in decades sooner than predicted. The Arctic is already at least 1.5C higher than preindustrial averages so it will reach plus 4 long before the tropics. Loss of sea ice in the area is a feedback loop that could accelerate the slide of Greenland glaciers into the ocean, drastically changing weather patterns and rapidly increasing sea levels.
It is these tipping points that can rapidly change the climate with limited notice, so don’t blame the climate scientists. Blame everyone living in an industrialized country, but particularly those who still mock and disregard those scientists.
What will the world be like in 20, 40, 80 years? When will the dust bowl return to the U.S., wiping out homes and agriculture from Oklahoma through Kansas and into Minnesota? When will Miami and New York loose a significant amount of valuable real estate? When will southern Europe become effectively uninhabitable? When does the Amazon basin or the Indian water supply dry up? When are the oceans essentially dead? When will mass mega-migrations and regional climate wars begin? How long until the global warming death toll is counted in the billions?
Will we force the planet to hit the evolutionary reset button within the lifetime of my great-grandchildren? I don’t think I’ll be around to see it. I hope it will not happen but we are well down the path and picking up speed. Our administration and those who support it could very well be sealing our fate as we all barrel headlong towards a human extinction event.
Trying to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is still desperately needed to forestall the tipping points. Eventually, we will have to work out better methods to capture CO2 so humans have a zero or negative emission rate in order to keep the planet cool enough to survive. But as I mentioned last week, now we should also help those vulnerable to climate change become more climate resilient and to teach them how to better prepare for the inevitable weather disasters that are coming. We made this mess, not those in the developing world.
On a much more positive note, I had a Peace Corps meeting on Saturday and was able to spend a little time on the beach. Seeing the other volunteers and a short time at the beach was very nice. I did have to shake the thoughts of sea level rise as I walked along the shoreline. And I could not stay that long because I needed to do some weekly shopping in Grenville.
Shopping in Grenville was cut a little short because of rain. I had put my laundry outside to dry in the sunny morning before getting on the bus to St. Georges and wanted to get back to it. I got on a completely empty bus, so the clothes would just get wet (it wasn’t rainy that bad, so no real worries anyway.)
On the plus side, I sat next to a little kid going to visit his grandmother. We talked and talked while waiting for the bus to fill. Going over number and phonic skills with the little guy was enough to get my mind off world events for a bit.
We need to think about the future, but we need to live in the present.
Love always,
John
This week I read reports that our administration admits that if the world does nothing about greenhouse gas emissions the earth will certainly warm at least 4 degrees centigrade over per-industrial within 80 years.
Further, they say that if the only thing the world does is to keep Obama’s automobile emission reduction in place, a false proposition, then things don’t change much. They use that as an excuse to roll back the regulation so that a few large corporations and shareholders make some more short term profits by externalizing the huge costs to the environment onto our children and future generations.
It is frustrating that the administration is eager to walk back from doing even this small thing to help future generations. The administration, and those who support it, threaten the lives of my grandchildren and great-grandchildren – along with all other children on the planet.
This week the administration was also fighting the International Panel on Climate Change meeting in Incheon, South Korea which is working to decide how the countries might stay within 1.5 degrees of warming. The U.S. continues to pollute the planet and continues to fight countries trying to keep the planet habitable. Children around the world who are the age of my grandchildren will certainly die prematurely because of our actions.
The global warming problem we face would have been comparatively easy to fix in the 70’s and not that hard when Gore was running for president. However, each year we have made the problem worse. It is now much more expensive to mitigate and has become much more expensive for future generations to manage. That is not a reason to put off the problem or to stop trying. It will be harder next year and eventually impossible.
If the world stops trying, as our administration proposes, then it looks like our goose is cooked, in this case – the goose is ourselves and our planet.
I will experience more of the extremely negative impacts of climate change in my lifetime no matter what happens. If the U.S. continues as usual my grandchildren, lucky to be born in the U.S., might not live to see their grandchildren get married. At least they have a chance of seeing their grandchildren – many kids their age will not be so lucky.
 |
| My favorite grandson |
 |
| My favorite granddaughter |
It is hard to think about how fast things might get bad. As the frog in the slowly boiling pot things are already getting bad.
Climate scientists have been ridiculed and attacked since Svante Arrhenius first identified CO2 as a greenhouse gas in 1896. The climate is very complex and predictions are extremely difficult. Scientists tend to be ultraconservative in forecasting the future and they are still attacked.
There are some significant variables that cannot be accurately modeled. These are the tipping points and feedback loops, like melting methane hydrates and the reversal of the carbon cycle, that might kick in decades sooner than predicted. The Arctic is already at least 1.5C higher than preindustrial averages so it will reach plus 4 long before the tropics. Loss of sea ice in the area is a feedback loop that could accelerate the slide of Greenland glaciers into the ocean, drastically changing weather patterns and rapidly increasing sea levels.
It is these tipping points that can rapidly change the climate with limited notice, so don’t blame the climate scientists. Blame everyone living in an industrialized country, but particularly those who still mock and disregard those scientists.
What will the world be like in 20, 40, 80 years? When will the dust bowl return to the U.S., wiping out homes and agriculture from Oklahoma through Kansas and into Minnesota? When will Miami and New York loose a significant amount of valuable real estate? When will southern Europe become effectively uninhabitable? When does the Amazon basin or the Indian water supply dry up? When are the oceans essentially dead? When will mass mega-migrations and regional climate wars begin? How long until the global warming death toll is counted in the billions?
Will we force the planet to hit the evolutionary reset button within the lifetime of my great-grandchildren? I don’t think I’ll be around to see it. I hope it will not happen but we are well down the path and picking up speed. Our administration and those who support it could very well be sealing our fate as we all barrel headlong towards a human extinction event.
Trying to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is still desperately needed to forestall the tipping points. Eventually, we will have to work out better methods to capture CO2 so humans have a zero or negative emission rate in order to keep the planet cool enough to survive. But as I mentioned last week, now we should also help those vulnerable to climate change become more climate resilient and to teach them how to better prepare for the inevitable weather disasters that are coming. We made this mess, not those in the developing world.
 |
| Relaxing on the beach with other volunteers |
 |
| St. George's in the distance |
On a much more positive note, I had a Peace Corps meeting on Saturday and was able to spend a little time on the beach. Seeing the other volunteers and a short time at the beach was very nice. I did have to shake the thoughts of sea level rise as I walked along the shoreline. And I could not stay that long because I needed to do some weekly shopping in Grenville.
Shopping in Grenville was cut a little short because of rain. I had put my laundry outside to dry in the sunny morning before getting on the bus to St. Georges and wanted to get back to it. I got on a completely empty bus, so the clothes would just get wet (it wasn’t rainy that bad, so no real worries anyway.)
On the plus side, I sat next to a little kid going to visit his grandmother. We talked and talked while waiting for the bus to fill. Going over number and phonic skills with the little guy was enough to get my mind off world events for a bit.
 |
| Traveling buddy |
We need to think about the future, but we need to live in the present.
Love always,
John
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